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Whenever the wind blows northwest from Belarus, Lithuania braces for disruptions.

That is when giant white balloons are sent across the border, with containers of illicit tobacco swinging beneath.

Over the recent period, this illicit balloon traffic has caused Lithuania's main airport into closure 15 times, delaying thousands of travellers.

On one occasion, the national skies was closed completely for a prolonged 11 hours.

However, the officials are adamant they are facing something much more aggressive than simple smugglers.

They assert the balloons have been "weaponised" in an manifestation of covert aggression by Belarus, an ally of the Kremlin.

Government Action

The Lithuanian government has declared an emergency situation.

While balloons have been employed by smugglers in the past, their numbers increased dramatically this October.

"Of course it started as criminal enterprise, but we've seen repeatedly how Belarus instrumentalises criminal networks to impact adjacent states," a government minister stated.

The official noted the balloons are launched from locations that help them best disrupt Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If you want to conduct a contraband run, you'd do it in the woods or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister pointed out.

Instead, there is a view that the balloons represent a form of diplomatic leverage on Europe's eastern flank.

"They see this as leverage: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really entering the realm of national security."

Border Vigilance

Now, every night, military police patrol in the border zone.

The balloons are primarily seen after dark.

Units set up temporary roadblocks on remote country roads, checking drivers' documents and examining vehicles looking for anyone connected to the smuggling networks.

The balloons fly too high to make intercepting them with firearms a safe or economic option.

Consequently, the government has announced a €1m prize to any firm that can devise how to intercept them.

Currently, teams use military radar to track the balloons and attempt to apprehend smugglers at the drop zones.

Soon, new legal penalties for acts of sabotage should also act as a deterrent.

Underlying Aims

The border itself is now defined by a high security barrier, with security wire and fortifications.

This extra security is a visible indicator of how Lithuania now considers its neighbour as threatening.

Not far away, the leader of Belarus has dismissed all talk of hybrid warfare as "baseless".

He recently attributed the activity to "criminal" smugglers, saying they were simply seeking a profit and finding innovative ways to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania is skeptical, partly due to a history of hybrid tactics.

In 2021, migrants were facilitated to cross into Lithuania and Poland in large numbers, creating a manufactured emergency.

"The current pattern involves a series of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, aimed directly at the airport," explained a security official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it immediately. But they don't. That suggests it benefits them."

The prevailing theory is that Belarus is attempting to pressure its way into lifting sanctions.

"They want to attract political attention and compel us to change our policies towards Belarus," is how one minister interprets the sudden influx of balloons.

The EU has not recognized the Belarusian leader as legitimate following disputed elections in 2020 and a subsequent crackdown.

Sanctions were levied then and strengthened later when Belarus assisted Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the international isolation of the regime and secondly, of course, the sanctions," the minister argued.

Economic and Social Impact

For now, travellers and airlines are having to adapt.

"This is an unprecedented situation for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already moved its charter flights, and another has reduced its evening service.

Revenue losses for all affected businesses are estimated to reach €2m by year's end.

"One thing is the extra cost, but the even higher risk is if passengers start to lose trust in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers consult a new webpage for wind forecasts and balloon likelihood before booking flights.

"It's not easy, it makes me a little bit nervous. I'd just like to get home as planned," one passenger said.

"I am convinced this is a hybrid attack on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really amusing to fly those balloons and then laugh at us."

Her words hint that another aim of such hybrid activity – creating division – is also working, and perhaps harder to defend against.

"This is effectively probing the limits of the alliance: looking at how we protect against these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even fight simple balloons. We're not even equipped for the fundamental challenges."