Beyond this Ceremony of Putin's Delhi Visit: The India-Russia Bond Which Has Frayed.

The diplomatic language and visuals from Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent visit to India spoke of a robust bilateral partnership. Prime Minister Narendra Modi greeted Putin at the airport with a embrace, and the leaders took a ride together, echoing a known diplomatic style. In his remarks, Modi referred to Putin as "my friend" and labeled the Indo-Russian bond as a "guiding star", built on "shared respect and profound trust" that had "stood the test of time". This marked Putin's tenth visit to India over his quarter-century rule and his twentieth meeting with Modi after the latter took the premiership in 2014.

A Gap Between Pageantry and Substance

Nevertheless, a significant disconnect exists between the ceremony and the actual content of this alliance. Although Putin vowed "uninterrupted fuel supplies" to India, the country's companies are actually purchasing less Russian oil due to international tariffs and sanctions. The two nations signed numerous agreements covering mobility, health, food security, maritime cooperation, and academic exchanges. However, anticipated revelations on major defence contracts failed to happen. India has abstained from any major defence agreements with Russia following the 2022's invasion of Ukraine, a situation driven by holdups in deliveries of platforms and spare parts as Moscow prioritizes its own defence needs.

A Partnership With Diminished Strategic Weight

These developments points to that the India-Russia dynamic no longer carries the same strategic heft it once possessed. During the era of superpower rivalry, India maintained preferential barter arrangements and market access to the Soviet Union and its allies. This unique relationship reached its pinnacle in 1971 with a Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, concluded before a war with Pakistan during which Islamabad was supported by the US and China. While both nations have attempted to maintain a semblance of this special bond through a "unique and elevated" strategic partnership announced in 2010, the truth is that their interaction lacks the same significance as New Delhi has substantially deepened ties with the Western world.

Diversification and Underlying Contradictions

New Delhi is not expected to sever its crucial links with Moscow. But, as external pressure increases on India to curtail its imports of Russian oil, both nations are seeking to broaden the relationship into other sectors. On Putin's visit, they unveiled an economic cooperation programme lasting until 2030, aiming to make their relations "more diversified, equitable and sustainable". This involves improving market access for Indian goods to address a trade imbalance heavily skewed in Russia's favour. Cooperation between the two spans several strategically important sectors – from aerospace and atomic energy to defence and agriculture.

Sentimental Affinity and Perceived Reliability

At an sentimental level, a high degree of affinity with Russia persists, especially among senior generations of officials in New Delhi who remember Moscow's pivotal role during the Cold War. This has translated into a certain level of sympathy for the Russian viewpoint on the Ukraine war. During recent tensions between India and the US, in which American officials have made sharp comments about the Indian economy, many in India see Russia as a more dependable ally.

This challenge, naturally, is the continuing war in Ukraine.

The comprehensive joint statement issued during Putin's India trip made no mention to Ukraine, despite it ironically described the partnership as an "pillar of global peace and stability". In spite of Modi's much-touted statement that "this is not the era of war", New Delhi's overt steps regarding the war have been minimal.

Navigating the Dilemma: New Delhi's Foreign Policy Balancing Act

This dynamic highlights the underlying contradictions in India's foreign policy. The country is poised to conclude a free trade agreement with the EU, following a similar agreement with the UK this year. Separately, India, Australia, and Canada announced a trilateral technology partnership. There are ten times more Indian students in the US than in Russia, even as moves are being made to boost people-to-people contacts between India and Russia.

How will India square this complex equation? New Delhi will be banking that ongoing peace negotiations will bear fruit, leading to a end of fighting and the removal of a key thorn in its relations with the Western bloc. But, even if a peace deal is achieved, if it fails of a "just peace" that respects Ukraine's independence and borders, scrutiny of the India-Russia alliance will certainly continue in Western governments.