Daily Murders in Mexico Decline Over a Third In President Sheinbaum, According to Government Figures

The typical number of daily murders per month in the country has decreased by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to new government figures. However, security analysts have cautioned that homicide numbers may not point to improved countrywide security.

Marked Drop in Daily Numbers

There was an average of almost 55 killings a day in November compared with nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the leadership in the previous September. This information was delivered by the head of the country’s national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we’ve had over these months is extremely important,” the President said, adding that last month the lowest number of homicides were documented for any November in the past 10 years.

Recent Background and Government Plan

Fierce cartel infighting, alongside the government’s heavily militarised operations to take on the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in recent years. The rate peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics agency.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure more than four times higher than the US. However, homicides have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has credited her national security strategy for an seemingly steeper reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader stated: “There is a strategy, we have oversight of the strategy, and there is specific tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The plan works. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The central components of the President's security strategy encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation capabilities.
• Greater collaboration between government authorities.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Limitations

However, security analysts warned that relying on homicide data to assess the situation of pacification was misleading. This is notably true given the rise in different crimes such as people going missing.

“It would be excellent information if this was a decrease, but I think we must not just focus on the murder data and conclude: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

According to the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the identical timeframe the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Numbers on murders is no longer useful for gauging the context of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the ability or the inclination to accurately recognize and categorize remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month averages of daily homicides was additionally problematic because it could obscure periods when there were notably high levels of murders.

“Using the per-day mean renders high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the government can point to the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 people were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious offenses, according to official data. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Anger

However in spite of these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with severe bloodshed, with several regions in the grip of cartel-fueled violence. Last month there was a high-profile killing of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the past year.

Weeks later, many thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and throughout the nation to show their outrage at graft and drug violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a manner to construct a picture of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, from a social perspective it’s highly questionable,” Vargas concluded.