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Just 48 hours prior to the New York race for mayor, Michael Lange made a significant forecast – going beyond who would win overall, and block by block. The analyst, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and has become a kind of well-known figure this year for his deep dives into city data and polling.

He released his highly detailed prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani was victorious although missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his newsletter, his platform. Lange possesses a talent for witty coinages. He highlighted, for instance, the split between the progressive stronghold, running from one neighborhood to Bushwick to a third locale, where he predicted (correctly) that Mamdani would triumph by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers surpass the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters leaned toward Cuomo, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Trends and Unexpected Results

What was your election night?

I had to do that because they were adding approximately 200K votes into the system frequently! I was actually a little nervous initially: Mamdani was ahead the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but there were large groups of ballots that came in later and his lead dropped from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world in which yesterday turned out kind of poorly for him, where the opponent was going to end up basically increasing his support from the Democratic primary. But Mamdani gained half a million votes to his initial base, and this was critical why he won. He went out and massively expanded his support from the primary.

Coalition Building

How did Mamdani get those extra votes from?

He assembled the coalition that the left always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, youthful, it’s renters and individuals squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Plus he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and immigrant groups. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He created the alliance that progressives long aimed for: multiracial, young, renters and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Muslims. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for the former president previously went for Zohran this year. But I wouldn’t say he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than anticipated. I figured it could exceed 2 million, but it reached 2.3 million – which is a lot of darn voters. Existed a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Right now it appears he’s likely to surpass half. He has just over 50% but remain probably 200K ballots uncounted at that time. So I don’t think it’s definitive, but I think it’s likely, and I hope he achieves it so afterwards no one can say the Republican was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote completely collapsed.

He lost any district in any area. Including Tottenville in the borough, similar to an highly conservative area. That truly surprised me. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained all of these Republicans on the island with a high participation. I think occurred a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened prior to Trump tweeted his support for the candidate, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide unless Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your often-discussed “commie corridor” – did backing for Mamdani dominant in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed some weakening of the commie corridor in certain places like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, instance, the Greek landlords and homeowners all went for the independent. Thus there existed some opposition. But no, largely the leftist base is a key factor why Zohran prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the election we reported on whether Mamdani was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he succeeded?

Exist neighborhoods with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance definitely mattered in those places. Likewise in the moderate communities including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, there are Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were strongly Cuomo. So I don’t know if there were major surprises here, but Mamdani retained left-leaning areas and even parts of the another locale by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what the city means politically? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest political leaders from progressives hail from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that we’ll see additional examples – candidates will come from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

But I believe that each urban center in America could develop similar progressive hubs. Cities are the epicenters of leftwing power in the nation – since they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where people are crushed by the disparities we face.